Once you think that something is improbable and everybody thinks it, people modify their behavior in a way that makes it more probable. Everyone thought it was so improbable that so many people would default on real estate, it actually created a greater probability that it would happen because more capital flowed into that sector.
I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.